If you’ve noticed that your dollars don’t seem to go as far as they used to, you’re not alone. Millions of Americans are in the same boat. The recent inflation we experienced, the highest in over 40 years, was a wake up call that made many people realize that the financial stability they had taken for granted for decades no longer exists. Since the end of World War II, the US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency, which has been both a blessing and a curse. The US government has been tempted to use its reserve currency status to its financial advantage. This has resulted in massive devaluation of the dollar. Since 1971, when President Nixon closed the gold window and severed the dollar’s last link with gold, the dollar has lost over 87% of its value. And the dollar continues to lose value today. Continued inflation in the US is stretching many Americans to the breaking point, leaving them struggling to make ends meet. But if you think it’s bad now, it could get even worse in the future. Currency collapses, like many economic crises, happen very slowly, then all at once. While things may seem fine now, the dollar’s end could come quicker than many expect, shattering the prosperity of Americans whose financial well-being is tied to the strength and health of the dollar. Numerous currencies throughout history have fallen victim to inflation and devaluation, from ancient Rome to Weimar Germany to modern-day Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Will the dollar follow them? The harm that could come from a collapse of the US dollar can’t be overstated, as it could be devastating to millions of Americans. And here are four reasons the US dollar could collapse. Key Points to Consider 1. Out of Control Inflation Inflation, as Milton Friedman famously stated, is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. So it’s no surprise that the trillions of dollars that entered the US financial system in 2020 eventually resulted in sharply rising inflation. Many people saw that inflation was going to be problematic, but it seems like policymakers in Washington kept their heads in the sand. First we were told that inflation wasn’t going to happen, then that inflation was merely transitory, and finally that the Federal Reserve had everything under control. But that wasn’t true. Inflation reached the highest level it had in 40 years, and only now is starting to get back towards the Fed’s 2% goal. Inflation results in the devaluing of the dollar and the diminishing of purchasing power. The higher inflation rises, the worse that devaluing gets. Inflation in the US isn’t anywhere close to the levels seen in Weimar Germany, Venezuela, or Zimbabwe yet, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be problematic. Even though the Fed thinks it has inflation under control, its response to the next recession could spur more inflation that could further devalue your dollars. 2. Federal Spending and Debt One of the reasons for our current inflationary mess is the fact that the federal government continues to spend trillions of dollars that it doesn’t have. The federal budget deficit is expected to hit nearly $2 trillion this year. Among the driving factors is the rising cost of servicing the massive $35 trillion national debt. Interest cost on the debt is already over $1 trillion this year, and could continue to rise in the future. High interest rates and a rising national debt are a bad combination, and the higher the national debt grows and the longer interest rates remain elevated, the worse that interest expense gets. Another looming factor that could contribute to a debt crisis is the imminent financial crisis facing Medicare and Social Security. The Social Security trust fund is set to be depleted in 2033, at which point it will only pay out 79 percent of expected benefits. Medicare’s trust fund is expected to be depleted in 2036. When those trust funds are depleted, the government will have to fund Social Security and Medicare benefits from general tax revenue, which it never expected to have to do. That could result in hundreds of billions of dollars of additional expenditures that the federal government wasn’t planning for, further driving up the national debt. As we saw in 2020, when the federal government’s fiscal stimulus was monetized by the Federal Reserve, this monetized debt can be inflationary. So the more money the federal government spends, the higher inflation rises. And the higher inflation rises, the weaker the dollar becomes. 3. International Avoidance More and more countries around the world are trying to wean themselves off dependence on the US dollar. That can be difficult, as the dollar’s use in international oil markets has been one of the reasons the dollar is in such great demand around the world. But an increasing number of countries are beginning to eschew the use of the dollar for oil purchases, or use their own national currencies for bilateral trade. While the dollar remains the dominant world reserve currency today, its importance is declining. There is also the fact that the US government has weaponized the dollar and the US banking system through its international sanctions, which impact far more than just target individuals, entities, or nations. US sanctions require financial institutions around the world to comply, even if those institutions aren’t American. That can dramatically raise the cost of doing business and result in bureaucratic and logistical nightmares. It’s no wonder that many countries have responded to this by dumping the dollar and looking for alternatives. The BRICS countries are at the forefront of this, developing their own payment systems, and possibly even developing their own currencies for bilateral or international trade. There are even rumors that a new BRICS currency could be backed by gold. While it looks right now like it will be a long time before the dollar is dethroned as the world’s reserve currency, developments could accelerate in the coming years. 4. Political Instability Underlying all this is
3 Reasons Gold and Silver Could Continue Climbing
Conventional wisdom has long held that lower interest rates are beneficial for gold and silver prices. Conversely, higher interest rates are supposed to be detrimental to gold and silver prices. Someone forgot to tell that to gold and silver over the past year, as prices continued to rise despite high interest rates. But since the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts last week, gold and silver prices have continued to climb. Gold has continued to set all-time high prices, climbing to over $2,660 an ounce, while silver pushed to over $32 an ounce at one point. Even though gold and silver prices had already made nice gains over the past couple of years, the Fed’s rate cut seems to have given gold and silver a shot in the arm. Here are three reasons gold and silver prices could continue to climb. 1. Further Rate Cuts Both Fed officials and markets expect further rate cuts this year and next year. After a 50 basis point cut last week, the next rate cuts are expected to be 25 basis point cuts. Yields on T-Bills, which had already fallen significantly in the weeks before the Fed’s cut, have fallen even further. Yields on 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-month T-Bills fell 14, 14, 11, and 11 basis points the day the Fed announced its cuts, and have fallen a further 12, 13, 15, and 12 basis points respectively. The expectation of further rate cuts is starting to be priced into bond markets already, and likely also into stock markets and precious metals markets. The further the Fed cuts rates, the higher gold and silver prices could climb. 2. Weakening Economic Conditions It is becoming more and more apparent that the US economy is slowing down. Labor market weakness, declining consumer confidence, and high debt levels are weighing down the economy. Looking back at previous Fed rate cut cycles, the first rate cuts came mere months before the economy fell into recession. If that pattern holds this time around, we could be looking at a recession late this year or early next year. As the economy weakens, gold prices tend to climb as safe haven demand picks up. We saw this in 2008, as gold demand and gold prices rose as the economy weakened. Gold prices continued to rise after the 2008 recession, hitting all-time highs in 2011. And the trend over the long term has been for gold to climb ever higher, which is one reason gold has even outperformed stock markets in the 21st century. 3. Rising Demand Gold demand has remained strong for years, and shows no signs of slowing down. And there are a number of reasons for that. First and foremost is investment demand for gold, whether in the form of gold bars or gold coins. Safe haven demand from investors first strengthened in 2020 during the COVID recession. Prices hit all-time highs back then as markets tanked, and even after some pullbacks they never really looked back. Investor demand for gold remained strong over the next few years, which has helped gold hit its all-time highs this year. Central banks have also been big buyers of gold, despite rising prices. Many central banks are building up their reserves, perhaps in preparation for what’s going to be happening in the economy in the coming months. And an underappreciated source of demand for gold has been for Russian firms doing business with China. Due to US sanctions, payments between Russia and China have been disrupted, forcing many Russian firms to buy gold, ship it to Hong Kong, then sell it in order to make payments in China. None of these sources of demand show signs of slowing, with investor demand likely being the strongest in the coming years as the economy heads towards an increasingly likely downturn. Do You Own Gold? Many Americans in 2008 watched in agony as the assets they had built up for years or decades melted away in a matter of months. But while markets fell, gold rose. From October 2007 to March 2009, stock markets lost more than 50% of their value, while gold gained more than 25%. And gold continued to rise, hitting all-time highs in 2011. Gold today is a good $1,000 higher than it was back then, and shows no signs of slowing down or looking back. With further rate cuts in the cards and a potential recession on the way, the stage is being set for gold and silver to repeat their 2008-2011 bull market performance. Thousands of Americans have already taken steps to prepare themselves against what’s coming by buying gold and silver. Have you? Whether you want to buy some silver coins to store at home, or open a gold IRA to help safeguard your retirement savings, there are numerous ways to put precious metals to work for you. Direct cash purchases of gold and silver remain popular, and could gain in popularity as falling interest rates make savings accounts and money market accounts less desirable. For those with retirement savings in 401(k), 403(b), TSP, IRA, and similar accounts, a tax-free rollover from those accounts into a gold IRA or silver IRA can allow you to own physical gold or silver coins and bars in an IRA, enjoying all the same tax advantages of an IRA account while simultaneously benefiting from any gains in gold and silver prices. If you’re worried about the future, whether it’s inflation, recession, or other financial turmoil, maybe it’s time to start thinking about how gold and silver can play a role in your financial planning. Call Goldco today to learn more about how gold and silver can help you secure your financial future.
Governments Around the World Continue to Go For Gold
One of the peculiarities of the gold market is that it seems that gold demand rises as the price gets higher, and falls when the price gets lower. No one seems to want to buy gold when it’s “on sale,” but everyone wants to jump on the bandwagon when gold soars. Since 2020 gold has stayed at relatively high prices, hitting an all-time high price late last year, and it remains over $2,000 an ounce. Part of the reason for that is continued safe haven buying from investors around the world, while another part of it is continued interest from central banks and governments. Just like individuals, governments and central banks want the sense of stability and security that gold can give. And the popularity of gold with governments and central banks shows no signs of wavering. Arizona Jumps on the Gold Train A committee in the Arizona state legislature recently moved legislation that would establish a state gold depository and pave the way for a gold- and silver-backed currency. The idea of a state bullion depository isn’t a new one, with Texas having already paved the way in recent years. But the fact that this idea is gaining traction, and the fact that the idea of specie-backed currency is gaining renewed attention, is another sign that gold isn’t having any problems retaining its popularity today. As more and more states warm to the idea of starting gold depositories or incentivizing the use of gold- and silver-backed currencies, it could bring renewed attention to the benefits of gold ownership and the use of sound money. Zimbabwe Pushing Gold-Backed Currency It isn’t just US states thinking about gold-backed currency. Zimbabwe is thinking about introducing a gold-backed currency too. Yes, that Zimbabwe, the one whose legendary hyperinflation about 15 years ago made it and its currency the butt of millions (or quadrillions) of jokes. Having failed in the interim to achieve monetary stability, the Zimbabwean government is now discussing the idea of introducing a gold-backed currency. The devil, of course, is in the details. Since the country’s notorious hyperinflationary episode, Zimbabwe has gone through a number of different currency crises. At one point foreign currencies such as the US dollar and South African rand were the dominant currencies in use. Zimbabwe eventually reintroduced its own currency a decade ago, but the same problems that beset the old currency plagued the new one, with overprinting and declining public trust eroding the currency’s value. Since then the Zimbabwean government has started limited production of gold coins, a welcome start towards sound money. But whatever gold-backed currency scheme it intends to start will have to overcome issues of trust. If Zimbabweans can trust that the government actually backs its currency with gold, and that the currency can be exchanged for gold at the nominal exchange rate, then the scheme could be successful. But if the government tries to print more money than it has gold backing, and if it limits conversion of currency into gold, the whole idea could go down in flames. China Continues to Accumulate Gold China has purchased gold for the 15th consecutive month, bringing its total gold holdings to over 2,200 tonnes. That places it solidly in 6th place behind Russia on the list of the world’s largest gold holders, and only a couple hundred tonnes behind third-place Italy. There have been rumors for years that China’s gold accumulation is part of a plan to introduce a gold-backed currency to replace the dollar. Whether that’s feasible or not is debatable, but there’s probably a reason China continues to add to its gold reserves. It’s not alone in doing that, however, as central banks around the world continue to add gold to their official gold reserves. In 2023, central banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold to their coffers, the second highest level on record and only 45 tonnes less than the record set in 2022. Gold demand in 2023 was driven in large part by economic uncertainty and fear of war, neither of which look to abate in 2024. So this year could once again be a year of strong gold demand. Are You Protecting Yourself With Gold? Central banks and governments aren’t doing anything unusual by building up their gold reserves. They’re merely doing the same things that many people around the world have been doing for years. Gold’s ability to act as a safe haven, as a store of value, and a hedge against inflation make it a popular asset to hold, particularly during times of economic uncertainty and financial turmoil. With fear of recession in the US growing, and with countries like Germany and Japan already in recession, safe haven demand for gold could continue to grow this year. Between rising investment demand from individuals on the one hand and growing demand from central banks on the other, that rising demand could continue to put upward pressure on the gold price, which at over $2,000 an ounce remains just shy of last year’s all-time highs. Many analysts are predicting gold to continue to rise this year, and if a particularly severe recession hits the US, and gold demand increases even more than forecast, even those price forecasts could end up looking conservative in hindsight. If you’re looking to protect your financial well-being, now is the time to start doing so. And if gold is on your list of potential options, now is the time to start thinking about how you want to start protecting yourself with gold. Whether you plan to protect your tax-advantaged retirement savings with a gold IRA or just want to make a direct cash purchase of gold coins or gold bars to store at home, Goldco has options available for you. Goldco has worked hard to become one of the best and most trusted gold IRA companies in the industry. With over $2 billion in precious metals placements and over 5,000 5-star reviews, we go the extra mile to bring our customers quality gold products and stellar customer service. Don’t let your hard-earned wealth